It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
